The Washington Quarterly

What Do They Really Want?: Obama’s North Korea Conundrum
Victor D. Cha
Playing the Same Game: North Korea’s Coercive Attempt at U.S. Reconciliation
Narushige Michishita
Kim Jong-il’s Clenched Fist
Jonathan D. Pollack
Cooperative Denuclearization toward North Korea
Dingli Shen
Picture the Problem: the Increasing Range of North Korea’s Missile Program, 1994–present

OCTOBER 2009 Volume 32, Number 4

Russia's Spheres of Interest, Not Influence, Dmitri Trenin, October 2009.
The New Nature of Nation-State Failure, Robert I. Rotberg, Summer 2002.
Weak States and Global Threats: Fact or Fiction?, Stewart Patrick, Spring 2006.
The Role of Islam in Pakistan's Future, Husain Haqqani, Winter 2004-05.
What Do They Really Want?: Obama's North Korea Conundrum, Victor D. Cha, October 2009.
Europe's New Security Dilemma, Lorenzo Vidino, October 2009.
Understanding the U.S. Nuclear Weapons Debate, Christopher F. Chyba and J.D. Crouch, July 2009.
China's Search for Military Power, M. Taylor Fravel, Summer 2008.
The Security Implications of Climate Change, John Podesta and Peter Ogden, Winter 2007-08.
Can Berlin and Washington Agree on Russia?, Stephen F. Szabo, October 2009

Russia’s Spheres of Interest, not Influence Dmitri Trenin	Can Berlin and Washington Agree on Russia? Stephen F. Szabo
Harnessing the Financial Furies: Smart Financial Power and National Security Juan C. Zarate	Europe's New Security Dilemma Lorenzo Vidino
Prix Fixe and à la Carte: Avoiding False Multilateral Choices Stewart Patrick	Using Social Power to Balance Soft Power: Venezuela’s Foreign Policy Javier Corrales

Washington Hold ‘Em: the New Era in U.S. Politics
Charles E. Cook, Jr


SECURITY CHALLENGES FACING THE OBAMA ADMINISTRATION
This exclusive Washington Quarterly e-briefing book offers insights and policy recommendations from leading bipartisan strategic thinkers to help navigate some of the most critical and complex security issues facing the Obama administration and its newly-announced national security leadership.
Revisiting the Future: Geopolitical Effects of the Financial Crisis Mathew J. Burrows and Jennifer Harris (initially published in April 2009). Drafters of the National Intelligence Council’s 2025 report forecast potential effects of the ongoing financial crisis on the economy, the role of the state, and the shape of world order. Will reduced U.S. political and market clout be one of the casualties? And link should be: More on Multipolarity/Multilateralism and U.S. Hegemony> Weak States and Global Threats: Fact or Fiction? Stewart Patrick Little evidence underpins existing sweeping assertions about the connection between weak or failing states and transnational threats such as terrorism, proliferation, or disease, even though policy is being implemented accordingly. What characteristics of state weakness are really associated with which dangers? More on Foreign Aid and Economic Development> Understanding the U.S. Nuclear Weapons Debate Christopher F. Chyba and J.D. Crouch (initially published July 2009) Together, a former NSC official from each of the last two administrations identify eight key divergent views in the ongoing U.S. nuclear weapons policy, posture, and programs debates, and explain the most important areas of disagreement and consensus. More on Terrorism> The Security Implications of Climate Change John Podesta and Peter Ogden (initially published Winter 2007-08) Within the next 30 years, climate change is expected to cause destabilizing migration, massive food and water shortages, devastating natural disaster, and deadly disease outbreaks that will present serious security challenges not only to directly affected countries, but to the United States and the entire international community. More on Energy and Environment>	The Myth of a No-NATO-Enlargement Pledge to Russia Mark Kramer (initially published in April 2009). Recently declassified evidence undermines the contention that top-level assurances were provided to Gorbachev in 1990 not to enlarge NATO either eastward or to former Soviet states. No such assurances were ever given or sought. Transatlantic Relations > Responses to North Korea’s Nuclear Test: Capitulation or Collective Action? Scott Snyder (initially published Autumn 2007) North Korea’s nuclear test may have unexpectedly catalyzed a paradigm shift, enhancing the potential effectiveness of the six-party process. The question now is whether such cohesion can continue as the impact of the nuclear test fades. More on the Koreas> A Win-Win U.S. Strategy for Dealing with Iran Michael McFaul, Abbas Milani, and Larry Diamond (initially published Spring 2005) In its nuclear negotiations with the rest of the world, Iran has been pursuing a strategy of “heads you lose, tails we win.” The United States needs a bold and fundamentally different strategy that would engage the Iranian regime and people on two tracks, allowing U.S. diplomats to pursue arms control and democratization at the same time. More on Iran> Pakistan's Record on Terrorism: Conflicted Goals, Compromised Performance Ashley J. Tellis (initially published in Spring 2008) Islamabad's inability to defeat the terrorist groups operating from its soil is rooted in many factors that go beyond its admittedly serious motivational deficiencies to combat terrorism. More on South Asia>

		Reshaping Rogue States Preemption, Regime Change, and US Policy toward Iran, Iraq, and North Korea		Global Powers in the 21st Century The Politics, Power, and Visions of China, Europe, India, Japan, and Russia		The Epicenter of Crisis: The New Middle East Examining Six Critical Countries in a Changed World
		The Battle for Hearts and Minds Using Soft Power to Undermine Terrorist Networks		What Does the World Want from America? International Perspectives on U.S. Foreign Policy		Contemporary Nuclear Debates Missile Defense, Arms Control, and Arms Races in the Twenty-First Century