North Korea: the Next Generation - Dingli Shen
Cooperative Denuclearization toward North Korea
Why has the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (DPRK) been so defiant against the international community? What could be its external and internal motivations to carry out new missile tests, and even a new nuclear test, in spring 2009 when its economy is in shambles and a large portion of its population is starving? Why has President Barack Obama’s “smart power” diplomacy, which stresses dialogue with countries with which the United States has long had difficulties, not worked well with Pyongyang so far? Why does North Korea seem to be ignoring its key ally, China, and its concerns? Beijing is now in an awkward position as North Korea looks uninterested in bestowing any credibility on China’s efforts to sustain the Six-Party Talks that are aimed at denuclearizing the Korean peninsula.
It would not be irrational to assume that North Korea has made a calculated move to advance its nuclear and missile programs. Nevertheless, what could its motivation be to pull out of the Six-Party Talks? How could that possibly advance Pyongyang’s interests? After quitting the talks, would North Korea be back under certain conditions? After so many false promises made by the North Korean regime, would China and the United States even be willing to resume talks? More importantly, will both countries be able to rein in North Korea more effectively? Though this paper is not optimistic about a potential reversal of Pyongyang’s nuclear policy, it suggests a way the international community can still make the threat of sanctions more credible for security assurances.
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