Provocations | 2012 Power Transitions
Provocations
A North Korean Spring?...how China’s politics and economy are changing…how to fix statebuilding…and more
A North Korean Spring?
Victor
D. Cha
and Nicholas
D. Anderson
Is revolution similar to the Arab Spring possible in North Korea? While many believe that Pyongyang survived its greatest challenge in the 1990s, that crisis set off divisive processes and underlying tensions between state and society which have been developing for more than 20 years.
[excerpt]
Iran’s Declining Influence in Iraq
Babak
Rahimi
Iran’s influence over Iraq has less to do with the formation of a Shi‘a alliance than with Tehran’s ability to manage Iraq’s internal divisions. In part because of post-2009 Iranian and post-2010 Iraqi politics, Tehran has to date failed to orchestrate these intricacies in its favor.
[excerpt]
Why China Will Democratize
Yu
Liu
and Dingding
Chen
Two Chinese academics argue that domestic trends in economic development, cultural change, political leadership, and the global environment all forecast a high probability of China democratizing in the next two decades.
[excerpt]
The Influence and Illusion of China’s New Left
Charles
W. Freeman III
and Wen
Jin Yuan
China’s “New Left,” which emphasizes building a social safety net and improving social equality, is positioned to have greater influence with the new leadership. Unfortunately, their proposals are unlikely to help the widening income gap or social alienation, and could even exacerbate social instability.
[excerpt]
The Pakistan Thorn in China–India–U.S. Relations
Harsh
V. Pant
Although some are calling for Washington and/or New Delhi to partner with Beijing to restore stability in Pakistan, Islamabad’s utility for Beijing is only likely to increase, resulting in a further tightening of the Sino–Pakistan entente cordiale.
[excerpt]
Solving the Statebuilders' Dilemma
Ben
Rowswell
The former Canadian representative to Kandahar argues that one principal lesson of Afghanistan is that statebuilding undermined government accountability, splitting authority between the government and international community. A new approach, defined here as a “triple compact,” is necessary.
[excerpt]
The Myth of "Securing the Commons"
Gabriel
M. Scheinmann
and Raphael
S. Cohen
“Securing the global commons” has multiple and often contradictory meanings, misleading and misinforming a crucial strategic debate about the U.S. role in the world. Redefined in concrete terms, Washington can pursue a global commons strategy that is manageable, beneficial, and necessary.
[excerpt]
2012 Power Transitions
What should the world expect from this year’s transitions in China, Russia, and France?
The Battle for China’s Top Nine Leadership Posts
Cheng
Li
China’s incoming collective leadership is a paradox of hope and fear with power divided between two coalitions—the elitists, or princelings, and populists—and new factional dynamics between them. China’s political and economic future will depend on their ability to work together.
[excerpt]
Russian Foreign Policy: Continuity in Change
Andrew
C. Kuchins
and Igor
A. Zevelev
The return of Putin as president will not significantly alter the course of Moscow’s foreign policy. There are deeper structural reasons involving debates among Russian elites about foreign policy and Russia’s place in the world that are more important.
[excerpt]
Aspirations and Reality: French Foreign Policy and the 2012 Elections
Brinton
Rowdybush
and Patrick
Chamorel
No matter who is elected this spring, Paris is unlikely to abandon its global efforts to lead. But with more limited resources available to carry out its global vision and goals, can the next French president maintain the diplomatic and military means to influence international events?
[excerpt]
