Provocations | Can Iran's Bomb Be Stopped?
Provocations
Japan’s confused revolution… how is China faring in the global financial crisis?... analyzing Kim Jong-il’s successor dilemmas… and more.
Japan's Confused Revolution
Michael
Green
One thing is clear from Japan's seismic August election: the structure of Japanese politics and policymaking will change. Foreign and economic policy is unlikely to fundamentally alter in the longer term, but now even this is no longer certain.
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China in the Global Financial Crisis: Rising Influence, Rising Challenges
William
H. Overholt
Although the global financial crisis did not transform the shape of the Pacific or global politics, it did accelerate changes, and challenges, that have long been under way, highlighting the reality of a new order in Asia and, to some extent, in the world.
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Kim Jong-il's Successor Dilemmas
Scott
Snyder
A potentially volatile transition to a new generation of North Korean leadership lies ahead. Three major challenges await, and three early decisions will have implications for North Korea’s international relations in general and U.S. relations in particular.
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The Sorcerer's Apprentice: Islamist Militancy in South Asia
Sumit
Ganguly
and S.
Paul Kapur
Pakistan's historical strategy has given rise to a sorcerer's apprentice problem: jihadi organizations have taken on a life of their own. To date, neither India nor Pakistan has reacted to this development constructively. Can they deal with South Asia's sorcerer's apprentice problem more effectively?
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Resetting U.S.-Russian Relations: It Takes Two
David
J. Kramer
A paranoid Russian leadership that sees threats everywhere, particularly from the United States, makes for a very difficult partner. Until there is real change in Russian behavior and policy, the Obama administration's efforts to reset relations are not likely to be reciprocated.
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Rethinking State-building in a Failed State
Seth
Kaplan
Instead of repeatedly trying to foist a Western-style top-down state structure on deeply decentralized and fluid societies, like Somalia, the international community needs to work with the country’s long-standing traditional institutions to build a government from the bottom up.
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The Limits of Audacity
Simon
Serfaty
Lessons from failed presidencies of the past frame a growing unease about Obama after his first year in office. There is plenty of time ahead, but Obama’s hyperactive presidency has shown strategic inconsistencies to the point of tactical recklessness.
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Can Iran's Bomb Be Stopped?
A look at negotiations, sanctions, and a military option. Will they stop Iran from going nuclear?
Israel's Military Option
Giora
Eiland
Will Israel attack Iran’s nuclear facilities? The former head of the Israeli National Security Council analyzes Iranian, Russian, and U.S. strategy and options to date, deriving their implications, along with other criteria, for Israel’s military option today.
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Sanctioning Iran: If Only It Were So Simple
Suzanne
Maloney
Sanctions represent a dangerous illusion. Economic pressure may have a role to play in persuading Tehran of the utility of dialogue, but as the primary U.S. policy tool, punitive measures will not succeed in solving concerns about the Iranian regime and its behavior.
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Negotiating with Iran: Reflections from Personal Experience
James
Dobbins
The former special envoy for Afghanistan unveils an insider’s view of his experiences and conveys his views of the benefits and limits of engaging Iran.
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The Iranian Nuclear Riddle after June 12
Shahram
Chubin
There is a diplomatic conundrum in dealing with Iran: fixing the nuclear issue is urgent. Yet, even Tehran recognizes that the real issue is the regime, particularly after the elections, and any bargain is not feasible without a change in the regime’s behavior or the regime itself.
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Iran's Foreign Policy Strategy after Saddam
Kayhan
Barzegar
Although the geopolitical changes following the Iraq and Afghanistan crises have created various new opportunities for Iran, they are also a source of serious security challenges. It is essential that Washington not misinterpret Iran’s actions, which are outlined here.
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