Palestine after Arafat

by Glenn E. Robinson, an associate professor at the Naval Postgraduate School and a research associate at the Center for Middle Eastern Studies at the University of California at Berkeley (initially published Autumn 2000)

If Yasir Arafat were to pass, what would a potential succession struggle look like? An "inside-out" cleavage among three Palestinian groups—those who have lived in the West Bank and Gaza more or less permanently, those who returned after the Oslo accords, and those in the Diaspora—would shape its form while a variety of foreign forces seek to influence it. The real question is: would it even matter?

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"This optimism is likely misplaced. Authoritarianism in Palestine is durable…The succession struggle after Arafat passes from the scene will not likely alter this reality."—Glenn E. Robinson

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